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The Macroeconomic Policy Challenges of Balance Sheet Recession: Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis

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  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

The paper compares the boom-and-bust cycles in Japan and Europe with respect to the reasons for excessive booms, the characteristics of the crises, and the (potential) effects of the crisis therapies. As in Japan the consequence of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies is the hysteresis of the low-interest rate and high government debt environment, the erosion of the allocation and signaling function of the interest rate, the gradual quasi-nationalization of financial institutions as well as gradual real income losses, the economic policy implication for Japan and Europe is the timely exit from the current crisis therapies.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Schnabl, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Policy Challenges of Balance Sheet Recession: Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4249, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4249
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
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    4. Gunther Schnabl & Andreas Hoffmann, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets: An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1226-1252, September.
    5. Kazuo Ueda, 2012. "Deleveraging and Monetary Policy: Japan since the 1990s and the United States since 2007," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 177-202, Summer.
    6. Gunther Schnabl & Holger Zemanek, 2010. "Inter-temporal Savings, Current Account Dynamics and Asymmetric Shocks in a Heterogeneous European Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 3279, CESifo.
    7. Ronald I. McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 1997. "Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133350, December.
    8. Adam S. Posen & Ryoichi Mikitani (ed.), 2000. "Japan's Financial Crisis and Its Parallels to U. S. Experience," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number sr13, October.
    9. Gunther Schnabl & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2013. "Fiscal Divergence and Current Account Imbalances in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 4108, CESifo.
    10. Holger Zemanek, 2010. "Competitiveness Within The Euro Area: The Problem That Still Needs To Be Solved," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 42-47, October.
    11. Abad, José & Löffler, Axel & Schnabl, Gunther & Zemanek, Holger, 2012. "Fiscal divergence, current account and TARGET2 imbalances in the EMU," Working Papers 105, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    12. Paul De Grauwe, 2013. "The European Central Bank as Lender of Last Resort in the Government Bond Markets," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(3), pages 520-535, September.
    13. Gunther Schnabl & Holger Zemanek, 2011. "Inter-temporal savings, current account trends and asymmetric shocks in a heterogeneous European Monetary Union," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 46(3), pages 153-160, June.
    14. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    15. Sekine, Toshitaka & Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Saita, Yumi, 2003. "Forbearance Lending: The Case of Japanese Firms," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 69-92, August.
    16. Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Monetary Policy Reform in a World of Central Banks," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 26-2012, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    17. Naoyuki Yoshino & Tetsuro Mizoguchi, 2010. "The Role of Public Works in the Political Business Cycle and the Instability of the Budget Deficits in Japan," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 9(1), pages 94-112, Winter/Sp.
    18. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji (ed.), 2013. "Hometown Investment Trust Funds," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-4-431-54309-1, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lino Sau, 2015. "Debt deflation worries: a restatement," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 279-294, July.
    2. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2014. "China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression: The Conflicted Emergence of the RMB as an International Currency," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(3), pages 1-35, July.
    3. Schnabl, Gunther, 2013. "The global move into the zero interest rate and high debt trap," Working Papers 121, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    4. Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2014. "China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression: The Conflicted Emergence of the Renminbi as an International Currency," CESifo Working Paper Series 4649, CESifo.
    5. Lawson, Cornelia & Soós,Sándor, 2014. "A Thematic Mobility Measure for Econometric Analysis," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201408, University of Turin.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Japan; Europe; bubble economy; European crisis; low interest rate policy; government debt sustainability; balance sheet recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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